Trend analysis of rice production in Nepal
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Rice is the major cereal crop of Nepal. Rice is first staple food in Nepal than wheat, maize. It can be grown in different agro-climatic conditions from terai to high hills of the country. Rice is the staple food of more than 60% of the world population. Rice is the most preferred staple food crop of Nepal and fulfils more than 50% of the calorie requirement of the Nepalese people. It occupies about 1.55 million hectares with production of about 4.21 million tons and productivity of 2.71 tons per hectare in fiscal year 2005/06 (DoA, 2016). Rice contributes more than 25% of the agricultural GDP and the 57.46% of the total food grain production of country. The crop is grown in height range from 60m (Kanchanakalan, Jhapa) to as high as 3050masl (Jumla Valley) of Nepal, which was the highest elevation for growing rice in the world. About 73% of the total rice was located in the plains of terai, where as the hills and high hills occupy only about 24% and 30% respectively (Joshy, 1997).
The growth of rice production was low (grain yield 2.07%/ yr) compared to the rate of population growth rate (2.29%/yr). Thus Nepal has become a net rice importing country. The 20 years agriculture prospective plan (APP) of Nepal has given the top most priority to rice as staple food crop. In Nepal rice was grown by almost all people in terai, foot hills and river basins. More than 75% of the working population was engaged in rice farming for at least 6 months of the year. Therefore rice cultivation was the single most important industry in the country, contributing more than 25% of the cereal crop and covering 55% of the total area under food crops. Here is data of rice production from 3 years.
Table 1. Trend of rice production
S.N | Fiscal year | Area(ha) | Production(MT) | Productivity(MT/ha) |
1 | 2014/15 | 1,425,346 | 4,788,612 | 3.36 |
2 | 2015/16 | 1,362,908 | 4,299,079 | 3.15 |
3 | 2016/17 | 1,552,469 | 5,230,327 | 3.37 |
4 | 2017/18 | 1,469,545 | 5,515,925 | 3.51 |
5 | 2018/19 | 1,491,744 | 5,610,011 | 3.76 |
(MOALD, Statistical Information in Nepalese Agriculture, 2018)
In Sudhurpachim province Kanchanpur district covering area of 1,610 km2 among this 40.3% (1303.7 km2) hills and 59.7% (1931.3 km2) terai. Total annual rainfall of this area was 1840mm. Maximum and minimum temperature of this area was 43°C and 5°C respectively(DADO, 2017)Kanchanpur. In Kanchanpur district population growth rate is 2.29%, population density was about 240 people per km2, economically active population is 50.1%, per person income was Rs. 6824, population engaged in agriculture was 79.8% and literacy was about 66.03% (DADO, 2017)Kanchanpur. Kanchanpur district of Nepal, which is famous for its productive land and high production of rice about 45,796 ha of land is under rice cultivation with the production of 179,314metric tons of production and 3.88ton/ha(MoALD, 2020). The block area for cereal crop production are Mahakali, Bedkot, Laljhadi. While Chaitedhan (summer rice) is also cultivated in 300ha land of remote areas with production of 1500Mt grains and productivity is 5Mt/ha(DADO,Government of Nepal, 2075/76)
1.3 Rationale of study
As we know that as population goes on increasing, land holding diminishes and production of crops goes declines, so we must increase either cropping land or productivity. And it is impossible to increase land holding but we can increase productivity by implying various improved technologies. Among them mechanization is one of the options for increasing productivity. But by 2/3 years, leader farmers seem that they were accepting improved technologies. They look happy with new technologies, because their cost of production was reduced, productivity increased and overall income of the farmers have increased. The above-mentioned problem of farmers, were solved with the adoption of
1.4 Objectives
Specific objectives
a. To know the trend of rice production in Nepal .
b. To analyze the mechanization activities conducted block and non- block of Kanchanpur assess the response of farmers on modern agricultural equipments utilization ∙
c. To identify the constraints related with application of Agri mechanical equipments in the Nepal.
There may be resource and time limitation in adoption of modern mechanization in agriculture. Farmers are not readily accepting mechanization. For the real problem finding out people do not respond correctly during survey.
2 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Trend analysis of rice in Nepal
Trends in Rice Production: Insights from Nepal and Salyan District
Hey everyone, Harendra here from Kathmandu! Rice is more than just a meal in Nepal.It's a lifeline for millions, powering our economy and filling our plates as the ultimate staple. With agriculture making up a big chunk of our GDP, keeping tabs on rice trends is crucial, especially as we face challenges like climate shifts and migration. Today, I'm breaking down some data from recent reports on national rice production over 13 years (2011/12 to 2023/24) and zooming in on Salyan District for the last six years (2018/19 to 2023/24). I'll analyze the ups, downs, and why they're happening, based on the attached snapshots and some deeper stats.
Fiscal Year | Area (ha) | Production (mt) | Yield (mt/ha) |
2011/12 | 1,531,493 | 5,072,248 | 3.31 |
2012/13 | 1,420,570 | 4,304,503 | 3.17 |
2013/14 | 1,486,851 | 5,047,047 | 3.39 |
2014/15 | 1,425,346 | 4,788,612 | 3.36 |
2015/16 | 1,462,908 | 4,299,079 | 3.15 |
2016/17 | 1,552,496 | 5,230,327 | 3.37 |
2017/18 | 1,468,545 | 5,151,925 | 3.51 |
2018/19 | 1,491,744 | 5,610,011 | 3.76 |
2019/20 | 1,458,915 | 5,550,878 | 3.80 |
2020/21 | 1,473,474 | 5,621,710 | 3.82 |
2021/22 | 1,477,378 | 5,130,625 | 3.47 |
2022/23 | 1,447,789 | 5,486,472 | 3.79 |
2023/24 | 1,438,981 | 5,724,234 | 3.97 |
Fiscal Year | Area (ha) | Production (mt) | Yield (mt/ha) |
Over this period, production jumped from about 5.07 million mt to 5.72 million mt, while yield climbed from 3.31 mt/ha to 3.97 mt/ha. Area, though, dipped slightly from 1.53 million ha to 1.44 million ha.
To quantify the trends:
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR):
Area saw a -0.52% dip, production grew at 1.01%, and yield improved by 1.53%.
Linear Regression:
Area's decline isn't statistically significant (slope: -2,094.63 ha/year, p=0.4825), but production (slope: 85,377.19 mt/year, p=0.0065) and yield (slope: 0.0574 mt/ha/year, p=0.0004) show clear upward trends.
 |
Fig : Trend analysis of rice production in Nepal |
Trend analysis of rice production in Nepal. In the last 15 years the agriculture sector of Nepal experienced several changes. The proportion of household operating agricultural holding as well as the average size of operated has decreased. About 66% of active population is dependent on agriculture (MoAD, 2014). Share of commodities to agriculture GDP from cereal and other crops account for 49.41% and separately constituted from vegetables and nursery 9.71%, fruits and spices 7.04%, domestic animal and poultry 23.25%, other animal farming 2.43% and forestry 8.07% (ABPSD, 2007).
Nepal is a small land locked country situated in between India and China. Agriculture is the backbone of national economy, means of livelihood for majority of population, main source of GDP, income and employment opportunities in Nepal. The agriculture contributes to about 34.7% to national GDP and provides part- and full-time employment opportunities to 73.9% of its population (NLFS, 2008).
To uplift the national economy in planned way government of Nepal introduced first periodic plan in 1956-61. But agriculture received the top priority only since third plan (1966-70) with the objective of increasing food production by 15% and cash crop by 73% (NPC, 1966).
Population of Nepal is increasing over a period of time but the production of crops decreased over a period of time. The hill and mountain regions are highly food deficit and therefore have become vulnerable to food security. Nepal has been relying on unofficial imports from India to meet its food deficit (MoAC, 2010).
2.2 Mechanization and farm mechanization
Mechanization is the process of changing from working largely or exclusively by hand or with animals to doing that work with machinery. As a result of introduction of mechanical
2.3 Historical perspective of mechanization in Nepal
In G.D. Aggarwal's words, "Farm mechanization is a term used in a very broad" sense. It is not only includes the use of machines, whether mobile or immobile, small or large, run by power and used for tillage operations, harvesting and threshing but also includes power lifts for irrigation, trucks for haulage of farm produce, processing machines, dairy appliances for cream separating, butter making, oil pressing, cotton ginning, rice hulling, and even various electrical home appliances like radios, irons, washing machines, vacuum cleaners and hot plates.According to Dr. Bhattacharjee, “Mechanization of agriculture and farming process connects application of machine power to work on land, usually performed by bullocks, horses and other draught animals or by human labor.”
According to Dr. C. B. Memoria, “It (mechanization) chiefly consists in either replacing, or assisting or doing away with both the animal and human labor in farming by mechanical power wherever possible”.
1924 : First tractor single cylinder (K B ThapaBiratnagar )
Mid 60s : Tractor (64) and pump sets (30) introduced
1964 : Establishment of ATF (USSR)
1970s : Tractor import by National Trading LimitedAgriculture credit projects finance availability
1980-85 : ADBN discouraged financing tractor/ machine
1991 : Establishment of NARC -AED
1995 : Removal of subsidy in pump sets
1996 : Privatization of ATF
2004 : Establishment of Agricultural Engineering Directorate (Shrestha, 2013)
2.4 Mechanization status of Nepal
Animate power is the main source of power, in Nepalese agriculture. Human power and animal power occupies 36.3 and 40.5 percent of the total farm power available in the country respectively. The available mechanical power in the country is only 23 percent. Most of the mechanical power is concentrated in Terai, the share of available mechanical power in terai is 92.28% that of total available mechanical power of Nepal (FBC, 2006).
Due to the lack of physical facilities (viz. road networks and electricity) and cultivation in narrow terraces in hilly areas; hill agriculture is mainly depended upon human and animal power. Indigenous wooden plough, local hoes, sickle are the major implements/ tools used for agricultural operation. In hills only 2.7 percent of holdings own iron animal drawn plough for tillage. In the valleys near the road heads, it is observed that farmers have started using power tiller for tillage operation and it is spreading along with the extension of rural road. The paddy Sheller and polisher and mechanical grinding mills are found to be adopted in majority of villages of terai and hills. However, in the mountains, still the milling is found to be performed in local devices such as mortar & pestle, quern and traditional water mills (Shrestha, 2013).
2.5 Impact of farm mechanization on the agriculture and farmer
Agricultural mechanization plays an increasingly important role in agricultural production. It reduces drudgery, increases the safety and comfort of the working environment; it enhances productivity, cropping intensity and production. It increases income for agricultural workers and then improves social equality and overall living standards. If properly used, it also conserves and properly utilizes natural resources and reduces the cost of production. It allows for timelier farm operations, effectively deals with climate change, produces better quality agricultural commodities, etc. It is necessary, therefore, to use modern equipment in agriculture and to use modern science and technology to re-invent agriculture. The region needs, inevitably, to accelerate the development of agricultural mechanization. The effects of the farm mechanization on the farmers are in the form of new seed, fertilizer technology, new cultural techniques of farming, modern farming implements and changes in the timing of operations. Typically, however, improvements in technology also increase the productivity of capital and alter the technological rates of substitution of capital for manpower, reducing the amount of capital that is necessary to replace a unit of manpower at particular levels of output. Other innovations make it possible to reduce the amount of manpower in relation to land needed to produce specified levels of output (Verma & Tripathi, 2015).
The low rates of adoption of rice technologies by farmers as a result of resource poverty, among other reasons, makes the improvement of efficiency an important and significant factor in increasing productivity (Hormozi, Asoodar, & Abdeshahi, 2012).
Mechanization inputs are often subsidized by low prices for tractors and machinery or by providing tractor hire services at less than their true cost. In many countries animal power and equipment are not getting similar support and encouragement. The smallholder farmer, and the national economy, may be disadvantaged in consequence (Kaumbutho, 1995).
2.6 Adoption of mechanization
Currently, Ghana hosts 13.6 million hectares of agricultural lands of which 59% (8 million hectares) are suitable for mechanization (AESD, 2012). As of 2007, only 20% (1.6 million hectares) of these lands have been mechanized in the country. Tractor adoption has grown impartially in low land of Nepal. (Takeshima H. , Smallholder mechanization induced by yield-enhancing biological technologies, 2020)
Recently, demand for agricultural mechanization has risen in Ghana (Diao, Cossar, & Kolavalli, 2014). The major determinants of adoption of farm mechanization were access to extension workers which had a positive relationship with adoption and access to farm machines. Problems faced include access to spare parts, access to skilled man power, maintenance of farm machines, availability of machines in time required. Therefore more work should be devoted to increasing the level of access to extension agents in other to increase farmers’ awareness and benefits of mechanization. Also access to credit by farmers increases the adoption attitude to mechanization (Ayandiji & Olofinsao, 2012).
In Nepal, earlier studies showed that tractor use grew considerably in the Terai through custom hiring without much change in farm size (Takeshima, Adhikari, Poudel, & Kumar, 2015).Several studies have recently assessed the role of mechanization in the comparative advantages of smallholders versus medium to large farmers in Indonesia and Viet Nam (Yamauchi, 2016). These studies generally have suggested that rising rural wages often induce agricultural mechanization and thus shift the comparative advantage toward larger farmers.
Nepal Living Standards Survey (NLSS), focusing on the Terai zone, where the adoption of custom-hired tractor services grew from about 10 percent in 1995 to 50 percent in 2010, while the average size of farmland owned remained fairly low, at around 0.5 ha. Our analyses find that although medium to large farmers seem to gain more than smallholders from adopting custom-hired tractor services, which is consistent with earlier studies, not accounting for the option to specialize in off-farm activities may underestimate the effect for smallholders. The total area cultivated under rice in Nepal was 120,038 ha and the production was 540,105MT in the fiscal year 2075/76 with the productivity as 4.5 MT/ha. Similarly, the total area under rice in Kanchanpur district under main season and spring rice was 45,515 and 700 ha with total production of 176,182 and 31,33 MT giving productivity of 3.87 and 4.48 MT/ha respectively(MOALD, Statistical Information in Nepalese Agriculture, 2018)
Figure: Map of Kanchanpur District
4.2 Population and sampling
Samplaed shorten targeted area . According to census 2068, total population of Kanchanpur district is 775709 among this male 378417 (48.78%) and female 397292 (51.22%). Population dependent on agriculture of Kanchanpur district is 79.8%. I have selected Bedkot muncipality–7 where block of rice is situated and Bhimdatta municipality -18 non block area. Primary data were collected through key Household survey and by field observation from 80household out of total household of above explained VDC’s and municipality.
4.3 Pre-survey activities
First of all before surveying, I had made questionnaire related to my topic. Then I went to Bedkot and Bhimdatta municipality for site selection and field visit with my site supervisor and selected land for block program as well as non block. After this I started doing baseline survey among farmers of block area about rice production techniques and utilization of mechanical inputs and non block area.
4.4 Sources of data
Both the primary and secondary data were brought into the use. Semi structure questionnaires were used to collect the required information/data. Key informant survey (KII) was also done to triangulate data given by respondents. The secondary information were collected by reviewing different publication from district level, government and non-government organization namely, Ministry of Agriculture Development (MoAD), District Agriculture Development Office (DADO), Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) ,District profile, National Population and Housing Census(NPHC)etc.
4.5 Methods of data collection
Primary data were collected through key Household survey and by field observation from 20 household out of 200 of block conducting farmers and 50 household out of 500 of non-block area. The information on existing cultivation system and various problems of cultivation practices were collected. Information about mechanical utilization in cultivation practice was collected and analyzed.
4.6 Methods and techniques of data analysis
With the help of Excel and SPSS tools, Descriptive analysis was done using mean, frequency, percentage, etc. As per necessity Bar-graphs, Tables, Pie-Charts were used that sufficiently extrapolate the prevailing status of farming system, mechanical equipments used etc.
Narrative Summary | Objectively Verifiable Indicators (OVI) | Means of Verification (MOV) | Risks and Assumptions |
∙ Goal: study the status of agricultural mechanization in rice in block and non- block of Kanchanpur. | |||
for completion of the survey | |||
Activities ∙ Pre liminary Field Visit ∙ Questionnaire Preparation ∙ Pre-testing of the Questionnaire Data entering by using with “Tobo collectore tools “ ∙ Household Survey at Rural Municipalities of Kalikot district ∙ Group Identification for Focus Group discussion ∙ Individual Identification for Key Informant’s Interview ∙ Co-ordination with different agencies like Agriculture Knowledge Centre (AKC). Rural Municipality Office etc. ∙ Data Entry, Processing and Analysis | |||
11. REFERENCES
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